The forgotten war in Myanmar
Plus, a financial controversy in India, Czech Republic flirts with Taiwan and the impact of war
This is a typical issue, but with a large portion dedicated to Myanmar because the country passed the second anniversary of its coup d'état. The situation in Myanmar is an issue I have followed closely, and readers need to understand that the country is still entangled in a full-blown crisis.
Because the Myanmar section is longer than usual, I included just three other stories for this issue.
I want to take one moment to point people toward Frontier Myanmar, the best English-language publication focused on the country. They were kicked out of Myanmar after the coup, and their journalists were detained (including an American, which caused an international incident).
If you feel inclined, subscribing to the magazine would be a way to support people making a positive impact on the world.
The stories that are too big to ignore (but we will anyway)
Chinese balloon flies over Montana
US expands military presence in the Philippines
A6 - Where the world happens
Myanmar - Two years on, a coup becomes a civil war
About two years ago, one of the most surreal moments in social media history was posted on Facebook by a fitness instructor named Khing Hnin Wai. Her 3.5-minute dance video featured trendy music, a Covid-19 mask…and the military seizing control of the government during a successful coup.
That moment would portend the start of an absolute catastrophe for Myanmar. The public was outraged, and they took to the streets.
Protesters in Myanmar tried to grab the baton from the recent protests in Hong Kong, Thailand and Belarus. They organized large-scale economic strikes, disrupted transportation and flooded the streets with tens of thousands of people.
Sadly, the Myanmar government reacted with a violent military crackdown, killing more than 1,500 people in 2021.
Despite the brutality, the military had misread the population, and the killings did not scare away the protesters. Instead, it pushed them into the arms of militarized rebel groups that had been engaged in a small-scale war with the government for decades.
Today Myanmar is stuck in a full-blown civil war with no end on the horizon. The resistance movements managed to control large swaths of rural Myanmar, but the military stabilized itself. It has created a situation where military battles will flare up, neither side will gain any significant advantage, and both sides will agree to a cease-fire in that area.
Former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who deserves spite for looking the other way during a military-led Rohingya genocide, was sentenced to 33 years in prison for political reasons unrelated to the Rohingya. Despite her flaws, the military managed to martyr her, once again.
Before the coup, Myanmar was on the verge of becoming another Southeast Asian success story. Its economy was expanding rapidly, it was relatively friendly to both the US and China, and tourism was a huge draw. Myanmar people were slowly pulling themselves out of poverty.
That has all been shattered. No foreigner in their right mind would choose to visit Myanmar. Most of the journalism and NGO work is being done across borders, and, most importantly, families inside the country are being destroyed.
As Myanmar moves forward in the coming years, the international community should draw comparisons to Syria after the Arab Spring.
While local realities are different, Myanmar is similar to Syria in that both conflicts were situations where an unpopular government brutally reacted to public dissent, eventually leading to a full-blown war that destroyed its economy and, for many people, their future.
A short seller tanks an Indian corporate behemoth
This is the most significant financial controversy in the world at the moment.
Adani Group, one of the most powerful conglomerates in India, saw over US$100 billion wiped off its market value after a US-based short seller accused it of “pulling the largest con in corporate history.”
Adani Group denied the accusations of stock manipulation and accounting fraud, but the global financial infrastructure decided there was some fire near the smoke. Credit Suisse stopped accepting Adani bonds for collateral, Adani canceled a US$2.5 billion stock sale and now the company will go through a “general audit.”
There is also a political angle, as founder Gautam Adani is very close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. When the critical report was first released, Adani Group leaned on nationalism to defend itself, saying in a statement:
“This is not merely an unwarranted attack on any specific company but a calculated attack on India, the independence, integrity and quality of Indian institutions, and the growth story and ambition of India.”
Czech president has call with Taiwan leader
Czech Republic President-elect Petr Pavel received a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Tuesday following his election last weekend.
After the call, Pavel vowed to meet Tsai, “in person in the future.”
Beijing was predictably unhappy with the phone call, saying it “hurt the feelings of the Chinese people” (a common phrase used by the foreign ministry when they are upset).
Pavel’s decision to open high-level dialogue with Taipei is particularly interesting because it marks another eastern European country that has decided relations with Taiwan are worth enduring China’s wrath.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have all self-sabotaged their relations with Beijing to deepen ties with Taiwan. And while there is a fairly significant regional difference between the Czech Republic and the Baltic nations, Eastern Europe is pulling away from China more aggressively than other countries in the West.
Expect economic retaliation from China against the Czech Republic in the coming weeks.
How the war in Ethiopia impacted its economy
Ethiopian and Tigray fighters have put down their arms (for now), and the Prime Minister is meeting with Tigray’s leader in a show of peace. All good news.
The stop in fighting has also allowed researchers to investigate how the two-year-long war impacted the economy. The results were predictably devastating.
According to Gallup, 65 percent of Ethiopians said they had struggled to buy food in the past year, a 14 percent increase from 2020. Ethiopia saw a 43 percent increase in food prices between 2021 and 2022, including an 80 percent increase in the price of staples like cooking oil. Semafor reported that 20 million people in the country are considered food insecure.
Additionally, 45 percent of Ethiopians said it was “very hard” to survive on their household income, a 28 percent jump from 2019.
Other questions, such as people’s satisfaction with their lives or the prevalence of negative thoughts, all trended in poor directions during the conflict.
It is important to note that the Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine were also destabilizing forces that led to this situation, but the war in Tigray was a major contributing factor.
On a related note, a light railway financed by China is falling apart, and it is not entirely clear if the government can afford the US$60 million it would take to renovate the project. Ethiopia already owes China US$13 billion, and the war may have pushed the railway from a financial reach to an untenable white elephant.
If you have an idea for a story or topic worth mentioning in A6, do not hesitate to reply to this email and we can look into it.