Special Issue: Takeaways from 'Israel and the Middle East: the conflict widens'
I attended a virtual panel hosted by The Economist. Here is my synopsis.
On Thursday, I attended a virtual panel featuring various editors and reporters from The Economist about the latest updates from the bombardment of Gaza. I found it insightful and thought it would be valuable to share with my readers.
I know this is a sensitive topic, so please remember that these are not my opinions, as I decided long ago to turn on my listening ears about this topic.
This post did take quite a bit of time to put together, so if there were any edition of A6 to pledge financial support, this would be it.
I hope you enjoy it!
A6 - Where the World Happens
Gaza humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate
Readers of A6 are already aware of the dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza, but it still must be the first point to mention with the conflict.
Beyond the morality of war, the brutality of the situation in Gaza is driving how countries are making decisions and what they see for the future of the Middle East.
Every proposed path forward comes in the context of stopping the horrors in Gaza, finding an avenue towards peace, and, later, investigating October 7 and the subsequent Israeli retaliation.
85% of Gazans have been displaced, and one of the most densely populated places on earth has become even more so, meaning that disease is spreading. Unfortunately, the war means there is insufficient medicine to fight the problem.
Experts are warning of a potential famine in the coming months if the status quo remains.
The death toll in Gaza has likely surpassed 27,000 people.
Israel has destroyed 360,000 homes.
Around 100,000 Israelis have been displaced in the north.
Fighting in Gaza is still very fierce and is focused on the south, where top Hamas leaders are thought to be hiding.
If we were going to try to hope for a resolution, it would be that there are signs that the war starting to have diminishing returns for Israel. The goal of destroying Hamas is not realistic — as most experts predicted in the early days of the war — so Israel is possibly considering a new phase of military operations.
The key to everything: Saudi Arabia
The war in Gaza has created the distinct possibility that there will soon be a fundamental shift in Middle East politics, with Saudi Arabia emerging as the undisputed power broker in the region.
The shift would happen if Saudi Arabia officially began normalized diplomatic relations with Israel, which would only occur if Israel stopped the war in Gaza, requiring the release of hostages, probably from both Hamas and Israel.
For Israel, a partnership with Saudi Arabia could be a tenable solution that allows them to end the war while claiming a modicum of victory. Both countries share an enemy in Iran, and Tehran has used the Gaza war to become increasingly aggressive in the region.
An open diplomatic relationship with Israel (plus claiming it negotiated peace in Palestine) would make Riyadh the most influential country in the Middle East. Israel and Saudi Arabia already work together behind the scenes to fight Iranian proxies, but this deal would create concrete economic and military integrations.
For the American public, it would require stomaching an uncomfortable compromise, as Saudi Arabia would likely demand a defense treaty and nuclear technology as a reward for their diplomacy. The US would not give them bombs, but it would put Saudi Arabia on the path to developing nuclear weapons.
Many Americans already feel uncomfortable with the fact that Saudi Arabia, a country that waged a brutal war in Yemen, is Washington’s top ally in the Arab world. So, providing them with nuclear technology could be hard to stomach.
But, if the US wants to see an end to the war in Palestine, they may have to accept a future where America and Saudi Arabia become even closer.
The Human Hurdle: Benjamin Netanyahu
A major stumbling block to finding an end to the war is one man, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose political survival depends on the outright destruction of Hamas, which will not happen.
While October 7 created a “rally around the flag” phenomenon that is common in any country after such a devastating event, it did not apply to Netanyahu, who currently has a 23% approval rating.
The cabinet is divided and is increasingly questioning the direction the war is heading, realizing it is simply not possible to rescue the hostages with military operations.
Netanyahu is under pressure from America, which has been a stalwart ally (Biden is very popular in Israel), to find an end to the conflict. But Netanyahu’s entire political career has been built on opposition to Palestinian statehood, so he is unlikely to relent.
However, in the past few days, countries like the US and UK hinted they may take an extraordinary step of recognizing Palestinian statehood without Israeli permission. That would be a seismic decision and would fundamentally alter the trajectory of this war.
Spread and desperation
The Economist panel was firm about two realities of the war. First, the importance of Saudi Arabia (discussed above), and second, the desperation from the region to end the conflict.
A6 has covered how the Israel-Gaza war has created a knock-on effect of Hezbollah becoming more assertive in Lebanon, Houthis attacking container ships in the Red Sea, and Iranian proxies wreaking havoc across the Middle East.
This spreading violence means countries like Egypt are desperate for the war to wind down. Not only has it experienced a 42% drop in traffic in the Suez Canal, but its leaders are apprehensive about a Palestinian refugee crisis.
The nightmare scenario is that Gaza cannot recover from the attacks, and warlords take over the state, ruling their fiefdoms and creating long-term regional chaos.
More likely is that the war will facilitate a spike in extremism not just in Gaza but across the entire Middle East. The experience of fighting the Islamic State caliphate in the 2010s was traumatic, and the idea that this war could create a similarly extreme organization is very much in the realm of possibility.
Long story short, most of the region wants the fighting to stop immediately so they can figure out the path forward once the violence has settled.
Concluding thoughts
While the reporters tried to find potential avenues to peace, it was evident that ideas for managing Gaza moving forward seemed unrealistic at the moment.
There are indications that the Middle East is trying to use Ramadan (March 10 - April 9) as a deadline to find a permanent ceasefire and possible hostage exchange. But the reporters also said we should expect sporadic fighting afterward, especially as the US becomes mired in its election.
Regarding the American election, there is a sense of urgency from regional leaders to find some solution before November 10 because they believe that a Trump administration or GOP-controlled Congress would fully support an Israeli conquest.
The reporters offered three “musts” for a peaceful future for Palestine: a new Israeli government, a new Palestinian government, and a second Biden term.
What I am reading
The GOP’s Taylor Swift problem
My Mom the Janitor: How ‘Invisible’ Workers Keep Our Cities Clean
George Conway Explains: How Trump Lost $83M (with Roberta Kaplan!) [Podcast]
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