New evidence about the origins of Covid-19
Plus, a French revolt and a massive potential bank merger
Typically, Covid-19 is “too big to ignore” for A6. I believe it is the most important global event of my lifetime, and I hope it will still be considered so when I am in my old age.
But I included it in the proper issue today because there was a significant update to the virus’s origins. New evidence supports the theory that the virus jumped from animals to humans. And yet, the news did not create the same buzz as the lab leak theory.
I think the reason is that an animal starting a global pandemic is not a sexy narrative. It does not cast blame on human maleficence, although it does lead one down the path of human ignorance.
As scientists have repeatedly said, the pandemic was likely caused by humanity’s insistence on relentlessly encroaching on wild areas, increasing our contact with diseases best left to the animals.
Finally, I want to give a quick shoutout to my mom, who sent me the story. The newsletter improves when I receive a link or two from readers. So, keep ’em coming!
The stories that are too big to ignore (but we will anyway)
The fallout from Silicon Valley Bank failure
Xi plans to meet Putin in Russia
A6 - Where the world happens
New data suggests raccoon dogs could have started pandemic
An international team of scientists found evidence linking the origins of Covid-19 to raccoon dogs that were part of an illegal wildlife trade at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China.
One scientist, Florence Débarre, found troves of data taken by Chinese scientists in the initial days after the pandemic began. The team found that one stall contained a large volume of coronavirus residue alongside raccoon dog DNA.
It does not definitively prove the virus jumped from those animals to humans. Theoretically, the buyers and sellers of the raccoon dogs could have already had Covid-19, with the virus just living on the animal (much like it does when pets test “positive”).
But, the World Health Organization strongly criticized China for withholding research that “could have — and should have — been shared three years ago.”
China’s unwillingness to open itself up to an independent investigation into the origins of the coronavirus has been a major story of the pandemic, highlighted by its decision to wage economic warfare on Australia after its government called for an investigation.
The news will add another layer to the debate about the coronavirus origins. The idea that the virus was transmitted from animals to humans is still the most widely supported theory among experts.
However, US government officials have begun to say it could have been accidentally leaked from a virology lab. Additionally, the Chinese government has pushed a theory that it was brought to China from the US via the 2019 Military Games held in Wuhan.
Macron raises French retirement age without parliament
Expect tensions in France after President Emmanuel Macron used constitutional powers to unilaterally raise the country’s retirement age from 62 to 64.
Raising the retirement age was a significant part of Macron’s reelection campaign, but it is an extremely controversial issue in France. The policy is part of the government’s goal of reforming the French pension system, which is running a deficit.
One rule is that workers must contribute to the scheme for 43 years to receive retirement benefits. By raising the retirement age by two years, the policy delays when people can receive money that is technically theirs.
Protesters in various industries have gone on strike as the decision became inevitable, with one notable result being that trash has begun to pile up in Paris. The opposition party called for a government no-confidence vote early next week.
Macron had to resort to constitutional powers to pass the reforms because his party lost a parliamentary majority in 2022. That means he does not have an overly strong mandate, despite being re-elected while promoting pension reforms.
Swiss banking merger as UBS tries to acquire Credit Suisse
Apparently, this is the week for all things banking. The Financial Times reported that Europe might be on the verge of its biggest bank merger since the 2008 financial crisis as UBS is in talks to acquire parts, or all, of Credit Suisse.
Part of the justification for the purchase is that Credit Suisse is struggling, and the Swiss central bank gave it a US$54 billion credit line this past week. The merger also aims to improve confidence in the European banking sector, especially as investors have started selling off Credit Suisse stocks.
If the merger goes through, it would create one of the largest financial institutions in Europe and would certainly create a “too big to fail” situation if it were ever to get in trouble in the future.
Credit Suisse has struggled with controversies in recent years, with the juiciest being that it now owns the distinction of being the only Swiss bank to be found guilty of a crime after it was discovered to be money laundering for a Bolivian cocaine cartel.
But, because it is banking, the bigger problem for the industry is the billions it lost after the failure of two investment firms in 2021.
An Iranian exile with a famous name galvanizes opposition
I would venture that most A6 readers do not know the name Reza Pahlavi (I certainly did not until reading this story). He is the son of the last shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
Living in the US, Pahlavi has been exiled for decades and has spent most of his life in relative obscurity. But recently, he has transformed into a galvanizing force for parts of the Iranian diaspora that believe the current government needs to be overthrown.
Pahlavi believes that the recent social protest movement has fundamentally altered the dynamics in Iran and that the next few years will feature consistent cycles of unrest in the country.
That being said, a lot of Iranians do not take Pahlavi seriously, as he is considered an out-of-touch elite, and the opposition has failed to nominate a reasonable leader should they succeed.
But, while Pahlavi may have only a vague path to return to Iran, his growing relevance speaks more to the fact that the current Iranian government is the weakest it has been in years, if not ever.
The complications of carbon capture
Many experts believe that if the world is going to meet the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement, it will require a tremendous amount of carbon capture technology. The reason is that the oil and gas industries are so entrenched that, even as the world moves toward clean energy, they will still produce too many greenhouse gasses along the path toward decarbonization.
Carbon capture is the process of retrieving emissions before they enter the atmosphere and storing them elsewhere, likely underground.
However, governments and corporations are in the infancy of navigating the consequences of this technology. For example, the link above covers two bills in Texas that aim to protect oil and gas companies from litigation related to carbon capture accidents.
The bill is a reminder that carbon reserves can leak, cause earthquakes or lead to other unforeseen damage. Theoretically, governments could set up a fund to finance damages created by carbon capture.
The other factor is that the world will have to quintuple the amount of carbon capture capacity if it wants to reach a carbon net zero planet, which means the likelihood of accidents will increase, and the technology will be more evident to the average person.