All eyes on a Nigerian election
Plus, the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference and a cool science expedition
It was a busy weekend in the world of geopolitics, which should have been expected when all of the world’s top diplomats gathered in one location.
While the Munich Security Conference exposed deep divisions worldwide, its impact was a net positive. When tensions are high, as they constantly seem to be these days, dialogue is crucial. Even a meeting where two sides storm out of the room screaming at one another (which did not happen), is better than no meeting at all.
Western allies coalesced around continued support for the Ukrainians in their war and decided that the next goal is to convince global fence-sitters that the world needs Russia to lose.
Looking ahead to the next week, pay attention to news out of Nigeria, which will hold a hugely significant election.
If you find this newsletter informative and useful, please share it with friends, family or colleagues that may find it interesting. Word-of-mouth recommendations are the best way to drive subscriptions and help the project grow.
The stories that are too big to ignore (but we will anyway)
A6 - Where the world happens
Nigeria elections loom large
The stakes of Nigeria’s election next Saturday could not be any higher. An upstart candidate has risen out of nowhere to grab the lead in the latest polls and, regardless of if he wins, Nigeria needs its population to believe Peter Obi got a fair shake.
In 2011, 800 people died during post-election violence after supporters of Muhammadu Buhari, from the northern part of the country, lost that election. Buhari would win the next election and serve two terms, the limit in Nigeria.
Obi is battling two veteran politicians: Bola Tinubu, who was the leader of Nigeria’s most populous state from 1999-2007, and Atiku Abubakar, a wealthy man who was vice president from 1999-2007 and is in his sixth presidential election.
Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy, but it is also a remarkably complicated country. Nigeria is split by religion, with the northern parts being mostly Muslim and the south being Christian. It is also divided into hundreds of ethnic groups.
Leaders have stoked these religious and cultural divisions to win votes and occasionally incite violence, including this year. More than 50 attacks have targeted election organizers, mostly in southeast Nigeria, where the Indigenous People of Biafra are agitating for secession.
In northeast Nigeria, jihadists like the infamous Boko Haram continue to wreak havoc, and crime across the country has worsened.
This backdrop is why Obi has become so popular. As a third-party candidate, many voters hope he can cure some of the institutional rot that has exacerbated the issues plaguing the country.
While the violence is a serious problem, it may be a symptom of a faltering economy, highlighted by a 21 percent inflation rate in December.
One major pickle is that Nigeria has been subsidizing gasoline prices to keep them at US$0.40 per liter (or around US$1.48 per gallon). If Nigeria stopped, or decreased, the subsidization program, it would free a lot of money for other economic projects. But doing so would undoubtedly foment public unrest, and we’ve seen similar situations in other countries get out of control.
Whoever wins next week’s election will have a lot of work ahead of them.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets Chinese counterpart Wang Yi
The meeting at the Munich Security Conference between the top diplomats from America and China — Antony Blinken and Wang Yi — signaled that both sides are seeking a detente from the fallout over the balloon debacle, with limits.
While any meeting is better than no meeting, the meeting was described as confrontational and Blinken warned China that a similar surveillance situation “must never happen again.” Wang, for his part, said the US must “solve the damage caused by the indiscriminate use of force.”
There had been concerns that Blinken and Wang would not meet, especially after Wang used his speech at the conference to direct sharp criticisms toward the US.
However, even confrontational meetings are important because hidden among the balloon drama was a conversation about China’s role in the Ukraine war — a far more important topic than the balloon.
While evidence suggests that China is considering whether to increase its support of Russia, the US does have a lot of leverage because it has openly and actively sent over US$50 billion in weapons and aid to Ukraine, eliminating any sense that Washington is sitting on the fence.
This backdrop is why the US and China need to keep talking.
Munich security conference updates
The topics here are too broad for the usual paragraphs, so I made a list of interesting stories that came out of the Munich Security Conference (with links, of course).
US formally says Russia committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine
Conference chairman Christoph Heusgen asked Germany to increase defense spending
Top Japanese and Korean diplomats promise “continued conversation”
First official Chinese visit to Taiwan since the pandemic
A delegation from the Shanghai municipal government became the first representatives from China to officially visit Taiwan since both sides closed their borders amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
The officials were welcomed to Taipei by tight security and protesters. They then decided to skip out on a planned visit to a lantern festival celebration that evening.
However, they are planning to meet with the mayor of Taipei, Chiang Wan-an, who is, somewhat ironically, the great-grandson of Chiang Kai-shek, the former Chinese leader who famously fled to Taiwan in 1949.
Chiang is a member of the Kuomintang Party, which is currently the opposition party and tends to be friendlier to China than the Democratic Progressive Party.
Beijing does not allow official visits beyond municipal officials, and it makes it extremely difficult for regular Chinese citizens to visit as tourists. However, because of the huge volume of trade between Taiwan and China, mainland city officials do maintain relationships with Taiwanese counterparts.
This delegation from Shanghai is banned from making any political statements during the trip or in its aftermath.
Drilling deep to find the origins of life
This is pretty cool. Scientists are planning to use a former oil drillship to deepen a 20-year-old, 4,640 ft (1,425 m) hole to 6,750 ft (2,057 m), making it the closes humans have ever gotten to the Earth’s mantle.
The hope is that samples from the hole will reveal a mix of minerals and water that could have been the “special sauce” that began life on earth. The green ingredient is called Olivine and is thought to be a critical part of serpentinization, which is a transformation process that some scientists believe created chemical and energy conditions that helped facilitate the beginnings of life.
Olivine is found in large quantities at these extreme depths, but it’s believed to be too hot for life to survive. If the scientists manage to find organic molecules, it would be a huge piece of evidence supporting their theory for the beginning of life.
Drilling the hole will not be easy, as the scientists will need to find a two-foot-wide hole about 5,400 ft (1645 m) below sea level. The original hole took 20 years to dig and is located in a part of the ocean where tectonic plates separate, allowing deeper parts of the Earth’s core to rise higher up the crust, which is why scientists focus on the area.
If you have an idea for a story or topic worth mentioning in A6, do not hesitate to reply to this email and we can look into it.