Due to a strange quirk in my work schedule, I watched a lot of college basketball this season. It was typically the only sport that was on when I finished work, and I often left for evening activities after decompressing to a game.
I am, which is a surprise to myself, fairly educated about the college basketball landscape this season. So, I figured I would share my thoughts with A6 readers who are prepping for the best postseason in sports.
Having said that, I do not work in sports. So, if your team is not mentioned below, it’s probably because I never saw them play and don’t know anything about them.
If you win your bracket using this post as advice, please send me a tip via a paid subscription to A6. 😛
Finally, it’s getting late, so I apologize for the lack of photos. Ok, let’s dive into it.
Three trends to bet on
It’s all about the big brands
Men’s college basketball is one of the rare sports in which the big schools do not have a distinct advantage over the rest of the field. Conferences like the Mountain West and West Coast Conference are just as competitive as the Big-10 or SEC.
But this year is an exception that proves the rule, and expect this tournament to be dominated by well-known basketball juggernauts.
UConn is the best college basketball team in a decade; the Big-12 is the deepest conference, maybe ever; and other contenders include Arizona, Kentucky, and Marquette. Those are all big, traditional brands.
Even the bubble teams are from major conferences. Oregon shouldn’t be in the tournament, but they won the Pac-12 automatic bid. Michigan State was out until they went on a late push to end the season. The same applies to NC State, Colorado and Texas A&M.
In other words, if you are struggling to choose between two schools, this is the year to pick the familiar recognizable brand.
Can anyone beat UConn?
If the NCAA tournament were organized as a set of three-game series, I would say, “Don’t even bother watching, UConn already won the ‘ship”. But the one-and-done format allows for extreme chaos, so no team is truly unbeatable.
That being said, UConn is the best college basketball team I have seen in a long time.
Not only do they have NBA talent on their roster — Stephon Castle will get picked fairly early in this year’s draft — but they play ball-movement basketball and high-energy defense. And they dominate the boards.
Dan Hurley is the best coach in college basketball, and he has built a team that is calm, prepared, and deadly.
There is a speed-of-play difference when watching UConn vs. the rest of the sport.
But! This is the NCAA tournament, so they will probably flame out in the second round just to spite my praise.
The Pac-12 will overperform
Cards on the table: I am a Pac-12 guy, and I want the conference to have a positive narrative in its final season.
It is widely considered the worst major conference in the country, which is probably accurate, but the specific teams in the tournament all have unique qualities that could help them go on a run.
Arizona is a legitimate contender to win the national championship, and its bad luck for existing in a down conference should not diminish the team’s quality.
Colorado has two NBA players on its roster (Cody Williams and Tristan Da Silva), and the question is whether they will start to flex their muscles if they get comfortable in the tournament.
Washington State is an excellent defensive team coached by Tony Bennet, who won the national championship with Virginia in 2019.
Finally, Dana Altman coaches Oregon specifically to perform in tournament settings. The Ducks probably “stole a bid,” but Altman’s program is built on extreme conditioning, which can be a huge advantage in a win-and-advance setting.
3 trends to bet against:
The Big-12 will underperform
This is a bit unfair. Eight teams from the Big-12 made this year’s tournament, so a few of the teams will inevitably flame out early.
And while the conference is the deepest we’ve seen in a while, it features a lot of solid tournament teams with no real chance of winning the championship.
I see three true contenders from the Big-12: Houston, Iowa State, and Baylor. BYU could be a potential dark horse because they have elite shotmaking talent.
Texas, Texas Tech and TCU are all nice teams that could make the Elite 8, but that is the ceiling.
Kansas is the fraud team of the tournament.
The Jayhawks looked like the best team in the country for a brief moment, and then the wheels came off their season. I am picking Samford to beat them in the first round, not because I know anything about Samford, but because I am betting against Kansas.
Kentucky won’t make the Final Four
A lot of pundits are picking Kentucky as a sexy “why not us” team to make the Final Four, and I get why. They were my favorite team to watch this season, thanks to Rob Dillingham, who oozes the personality of Kobe Bryant.
I wish I could pick them to go far, but man, they are simply unable to blow anyone out.
Every game is a 12-point comeback, a 10-point collapse, or an exciting back-and-forth affair, which is great for the viewer but makes it hard to trust them in the tournament. The games are consistently close, and they will lose because of a random turnover or poorly-timed cold streak.
But make an effort to watch Kentucky if you are debating which games to focus on.
St. Mary’s is not a dark horse
St. Mary’s was an excellent basketball team with Final Four written all over it until two of its best players — Mason Forbes (concussion) and center Harry Wessels (shoulder) — went down with nagging injuries.
Both players are expected to play on Friday, but they won’t be at 100%, and the Gaels are playing a team in Grand Canyon that I believe is severely underrated.
My conspiracy theory is that the NCAA organizers also know Grand Canyon is excellent, so they put them at the 12 seed to manipulate the Antelopes into the Cinderella story of 2024.
I hate that I have to put my faith in Grand Canyon on one game with St. Mary’s, but I firmly believe the school is set to become the next, well, St. Mary’s.
5 teams I like
Grand Canyon University: The next up-and-coming mid-major school. This year will be the last time gamblers can take advantage of the lack of brand recognition for the best college basketball team in Phoenix.
McNeese: Only because they dropped the ‘state’, and that’s cool. I’ve never seen them play.
Houston: They are capable of blowing out the best teams in the country. But every so often, they lay an egg. They were the best team in the best conference, so that should count for something.
Montana State: Because I am from Bozeman. It’s that simple. The Bobcats are a .500 team, but they have been on a bit of a tear to end the season, earning the Big Sky conference automatic bid. That being said, as much as it hurts my heart, they probably deserve the play-in to the #16 seed.
Texas: I live in Austin, so I have watched a fair amount of the Longhorns. They can be frustrating because they feel like a team that should be better than they are. But Texas is still a good team that can beat anybody in the country on a good day.
5 teams I don’t like
Kansas: My #1 fraud team of the 2024 NCAA tournament. Sometimes, the mix of injuries, bad chemistry, and underperforming talent can tank a season, and that happened to the Jayhawks this year. The wheels fell off the wagon late in the season and they have been non-competitive in the Big-12 for a month.
Oakland: Halfway through the Horizon League championship game, I decided to pick against whoever ended up winning. I have nothing against Oakland, but this was the only conference tournament game I watched where I felt a significant drop in talent.
Gonzaga: They simply lack the high-end talent of past Zag teams. I think their relatively high seed is due to their brand name and history. It took a second-half surge for the Bulldogs even to make the tournament.
Florida: The Gators have a “first-half problem,” and they will inevitably dig too big of a hole to get out of. In seemingly every game they mount huge rallies that often result in comfortable wins. But that model feels unsustainable.
Alabama: No defense, that’s it. It’s a fun team with good players and a very interesting coach. But they just don’t play defense, and eventually, they won’t be able to stop a team with top-tier talent.
Players that will shine
Rob Dillingham (Kentucky): The most fun player in the NCAA tournament. This Kobe-esque score-first guard will emerge as a fan favorite if Kentucky goes far. He can be a ball hog, but he hits tough shots and demands the ball in clutch moments, much like the aforementioned Laker great.
Reed Shepard (Kentucky): Shepard may be the #1 pick in the NBA draft. He is an all-around excellent basketball player with the potential to be a very good starting point guard in the League. Dillingham’s stardom sometimes overshadows him, but Shepard is the better player.
Zach Eddy (Purdue): I don’t see an NBA future for Eddy. He is too lumbering and lacks any scoring punch outside of the paint. But he is also 7’4” tall, and it is always fascinating to watch how college basketball teams deal with that type of size.
Max Abmas (Texas): This guy just has a knack for the dramatic. If I were to put money on the graduating player who captures America’s heart, it would be Abmas.
N’Faly Dante (Oregon): This dude is too big and too strong for college players. He’s 6’11”, weighs 210 pounds, and is built entirely of muscle. Dante’s future is spending 12 years as a third-string center averaging 5 points a game in the NBA, which translates to an absolute force in the NCAA tournament.
RJ Davis (North Carolina): Probably the best pure scorer in the tournament, Davis is the reason why I am taking North Carolina to make the Final Four. The Tar Heels are a team filled with very good players, and Davis is the guy who can reach a different level if necessary.
My Final Four
North Carolina: This is a talented team that knows how to win, with one player who can catch fire and bail them out if they get into trouble.
Connecticut: The best team in the country.
Houston: The best team in the Big-12 all season, and the conference should have at least one representative in the Final Four.
Creighton: The only team to convincingly beat UConn all season.
UConn beats Creighton in a Big East rematch to win back-to-back titles.
I love the Ducks for the same reason you love Montana State, and it really is that simple, isn't it? That said, your take on Dante is dead-on accurate. Hate to say it, but here we are.
We also love us a good Cinderlla story, and this tourney is usually good for at least one. Is it Grand Canyon's turn? maybe. Guess we'll see. In the meantime, I've got UConn taking it all. I love a gamble, but the smart money says it'll be a Husky cutting down the nets on April 8th.